Accuracy score: 6.8/10

(cross posted from Perspective and Context)

On Oct 25 2020, this writer set out to forecast the possible outcomes for the 2020 election, worth revisiting now. On a scale of 1/10 the correlation between possible and actual ranks at 6.8.

1- Biden wins in a sweeping 1932/1984 landslide

2- Biden ekes out a slim victory and Trump contests the win, sending the US into a self-destructive tailspin

3- Biden ekes out a slim victory and Trump huff and puffs but doesn’t contest the win, preferring to hedge his bet on the future

The last 5 months saw a relative mix…

Constant and unencumbered access to them is key to the global economy.

U.S. Navy F-14A Tomcat flying over Kuwati oil wells set on fire by Iraqi forces during the Persian Gulf War, 1991. Credit: U.S. Department of Defense

30 years after the start of the first Gulf War, clearly fought by the US-led coalition to deter Iraq from taking over the Saudi oil fields, the world could see a decisive pivot to another “hot” conflict, this time over preserving access to semiconductor chips.

These chips could act as “the new oil”, in the sense that constant and ready access to them is key to the global economy.


President George HW Bush convinced a coalition of 35 nations to rout Saddam Hussein to ensure the flow of oil in 1990–91 and the preservation of control of the Saudi…

Are we wasting the Covid crisis and avoiding the Great Reset ?

NB: this is a cross post from my Substack newsletter, published in Oct

Born during the baby crash years of the 1970s and coming of age in 1980s America images of the future beckoned and excited the imagination. Notwithstanding the “Day After” nuclear Armageddon fears, our childhood was bookended by the 2001 Space Odyssey-style visions of the future and the fall of the Berlin Wall. Futurists like Alvin Toffler graced magazine covers and the “year 2000” was a calling card for progress. The first 2 decades of the 21st century, rocked by terrorism, wars and climate catastrophes, and too often…

America needs to update its federation to prevent a deeper unraveling

NB: originally published on Oct 17, this is a cross post from my Substack newsletter

The AP released a disheartening poll yesterday on the state of US democracy:

Add to it that US media thinks little of the fact there was no debate between the candidates for President this week says a lot about the state of America. In 2004 at the DNC Barack Obama appealed to the better selves of America and asked for a leap of faith to transcend the red/blue divide. His call to action mostly failed, due to entrenched interests and more.

He should leave China now or risk his fortune and more

UPDATE from Nov 13 Substack post

Jack Ma made a controversial speech on Oct 24

NB: this post was originally posted on Nov 13 on my Substack

UPDATE: as expected and forewarned, Xi Jinping is going to make an example out of Ma, who should really think about leaving China, now.

Bloomberg this Dec 24:

The probe announced Thursday marks the formal start of the Communist Party’s crackdown on the crown jewel of Ma’s sprawling dominion, spanning everything from e-commerce to logistics and social media. [..]

Once hailed as drivers of economic prosperity and symbols of the country’s technological prowess, Alibaba and rivals like Tencent Holdings Ltd. face increasing…

It’s the sum of collective greed and evil

American media, particularly its DC/NY political media, has many virtues: doggedness like David Fahrentold who uncovered Trump’s grifting, righteousness like Eugene Robinson and Mike Barnicle whose opeds are useful chronicles of our “interesting times”. What it fundamentally lacks is the ability to think outside itself and to call out, forcefully, how we got here, with a Trumpified GOP and Roger Stone calling for Trump to imprison the Clintons, Mark Zuckerberg and even Gen. Mattis.

Rupert Murdoch looks at one of the first copies of the new Sun newspaper, November 1969. Photograph: Pa/PA Archive/Press Association Images via The Guardian

Murdoch destabilized democracy on 3 continents

Rupert Murdoch will be remembered as the man whose greed and cunning destabilized and upended democracy in the English language…

The rise of the true multipolar world

Future analysts of the first two decades of the 21st century might wonder how 2 of the most powerful countries in the world, China and the US, managed to elevate to the highest office bombastic and flawed sons of privilege, seemingly determined in running their societies into the ground.

Current analysts also wonder how China’s supposed 5,000 year old civilization, having adhered up to now to Deng Xiaoping’s genius political system, is letting a mini Mao concentrate all power in his hands. The last time China lived under a single man dictatorship it cost millions of lives and maintained it…

A manifesto for curators, mediators and moderators

Photo by William Iven on Unsplash

It’s historical fact that starting in the 15th century Gutenberg’s press liberated the propagation of ideas vs monk-copied enluminures and directly affected societies’ very structures. The cumulative effects of mass access to broadband, mobile access to the internet and participation in social media such as blogging and tweeting are not yet fully analyzed but the past 5 years are a good indicator.

“Social” media is an oxymoron

So-called social media is an oxymoron: social implies a modicum of interaction rules, sorely lacking on Facebook and Twitter, and media implies a mediation performed by newspapers, radio and broadcast and cable tv…

Yes, as it always does

Sunrise neer Deerfield, Kansas, November 2018

VP Biden’s stirring rhetoric last night put it simply: light and darkness are pitted against each other in November. This choice has been put before America before, and in most instances, its people chose light.

What’s the source of my realistic optimism ? It’s part personal experience, part History. In previous articles I wrote about my American upbringing amid the Reagan revolution where the Great Communicator channeled “the shining city on the hill” and “morning in America”. In the weeks before the 2018 midterms I wrote about the forces that are fundamentally reshaping America and its role in the world.

Frederic Guarino

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